EAS Publisher | Assessement of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Measles and Yellow Fever and Vaccine Coverage Gaps in North-Central Nigeria, 2020

Assessement of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Measles and Yellow Fever and Vaccine Coverage Gaps in North-Central Nigeria, 2020–2024: a Mixed-Methods Study

DOI : https://doi.org/10.36349/easjpbs.2026.v08i04.002

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Background: Measles and Yellow Fever are vaccine-preventable diseases with recurrent outbreaks in Nigeria. North-Central Nigeria experiences seasonal peaks but lacks granular LGA-level spatial-temporal analysis. Methods: Concurrent mixed-methods design. Quantitative: NCDC surveillance sitreps 2020-2024, DHS 2021, N=1,842 household questionnaires. Qualitative: 24 KIIs and 8 FGDs. Spatial analysis used ArcGIS 10.8. Temporal analysis used epi-curves and seasonal decomposition. Vaccine coverage compared to WHO 80% threshold. STATA 17 for statistics. Results: 2,620 confirmed measles cases, 0 confirmed Yellow Fever cases 2020-2024. Nasarawa, Niger, and Kogi had highest burden: 210, 186, and 175 cases. Strong seasonality: Jan-April peaks, March 2.7x baseline. No state met WHO 80% threshold: Plateau 52%, Nasarawa 61%, Benue 55%, Kwara 46%, Kogi 44%. 70.4% of confirmed measles cases were zero-dose children. 2022 and 2024 showed national surges. Conclusions: Persistent clustering, dry-season seasonality, and sub-threshold coverage drive outbreaks. Pre-season LGA-targeted campaigns before January and routine immunization strengthening are critical for WHO 2030 elimination goals.

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Distinguished Professor of Haematology Head — Experimental, Historical & Sensory Haematology Vlad the Impaler University, Wolf’s Lane, Wooden Stakes Grove 666, Transylvania.

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