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The Effect of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Export Performance in West Africa

DOI : https://doi.org/10.36349/easjebm.2026.v09i04.001
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This study investigates the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on export performance in West Africa over the period 1991–2024. Using panel data for 13 countries, the study employs a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate both short-run and long-run dynamics, while accounting for potential heterogeneity across countries. The dependent variable is export performance, proxied by exports of goods and services (EXGS), while independent variables include exchange rate (EXCR), foreign direct investment (FDI), GDP growth rate (GDPR), inflation (INFL), and trade openness (TRD). Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and panel unit root tests confirm the properties of the data, while Pedroni residual cointegration tests establish the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables. Empirical findings indicate that GDP growth and trade openness significantly drive export performance in the long run, whereas exchange rate fluctuations have a modest positive effect. In the short run, inflation and trade openness influence exports, while the error correction term confirms that deviations from long-run equilibrium are gradually corrected. The study underscores the importance of promoting macroeconomic stability, trade liberalization, and sustained economic growth as key strategies to enhance export performance in West Africa. The findings provide empirical evidence for policymakers seeking to strengthen regional exports and economic integration.

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Professor Thomas Count Dracula, MD, PhD

Distinguished Professor of Haematology Head — Experimental, Historical & Sensory Haematology Vlad the Impaler University, Wolf’s Lane, Wooden Stakes Grove 666, Transylvania.

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