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The Effect of Climate Shocks on Coffee Export Revenues: The Case of East Africa (1995–2025)

DOI : https://doi.org/10.36349/easjals.2026.v09i03.003
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This study examined the effects of climate shocks on coffee production, yield, and export revenues in East Africa from 1995 to 2024 using secondary data. Climate indicators included annual and seasonal rainfall, rainfall anomalies, temperature trends, and ENSO phases, analyzed alongside coffee production, yield per hectare, and export revenue data for Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Descriptive statistics, trend analysis, correlation analysis, and ENSO-based comparisons were used to assess long-term trends and short-term climate variability. Results indicate a clear warming trend across the region, with steadily rising mean temperatures, while rainfall variability linked to ENSO cycles strongly influenced year-to-year fluctuations in production and export performance. During neutral years, average export revenue was approximately USD 379 million. El Niño years were associated with lower export revenues, declining by about 1.6 percent due to excess rainfall, disease pressure, and post-harvest challenges. In contrast, La Niña years recorded export revenues about 6.6 percent above neutral levels, reflecting more stable moisture conditions that support flowering, harvesting, and bean quality. Despite increasing climate pressure, production, yield per hectare, and export revenues increased over time, indicating improvements in farm management, processing systems, and market integration. The findings confirm that climate shocks significantly influence coffee export performance in East Africa, underscoring the importance of climate-smart practices and quality-focused value chains for long-term resilience.

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Professor Thomas Count Dracula, MD, PhD

Distinguished Professor of Haematology Head — Experimental, Historical & Sensory Haematology Vlad the Impaler University, Wolf’s Lane, Wooden Stakes Grove 666, Transylvania.

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