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Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of Technological Changes on Chinese Commodity Exports (2000-2022) Using the Threshold Regression Model

DOI : https://doi.org/10.36344/ccijemms.2024.v06i06.001
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Technological changes and trade are closely intertwined in the contemporary era. Technological advancements, particularly in the realms of communications, information technology, and patents, have played a crucial role in stimulating and reshaping international trade by influencing production methods and the quality of goods and services produced. This research aims to analyze and measure the impact of technological changes, represented by patent applications, on commodity exports in China. Employing the Threshold Regression model, the study examines the magnitude of this impact across various stages during the research period. The underlying hypothesis posits a positive correlation between technological changes and commodity exports in China throughout these different stages. To achieve this objective and validate the hypothesis, the research combines two methodological approaches. The deductive approach utilizes descriptive analysis in the theoretical framework, drawing upon economic theory and a comprehensive review of literature pertaining to technological changes and foreign trade. Conversely, the inductive approach employs quantitative analysis, leveraging econometric techniques to interpret the relationship between technological changes and foreign trade. The study relies on time series data spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. Following a series of econometric tests, the data was deemed suitable for analysis using the Threshold Regression model. The results of the Bai-Perron sequential test for threshold values revealed the existence of five thresholds for the dependent variable (patent applications) when testing for multiple structural breaks. The impact of these thresholds on commodity exports was positive and statistically significant across all five thresholds, with the greatest impact observed at the first threshold, followed by a gradual decline until reaching saturation levels in the subsequent thresholds. Based on these findings, the research recom

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Lecturer, Dept. of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Shaheed Monsur Ali Medical College & Hospital, Uttara, Dhaka-1230, Bangladesh

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