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Climate Change and Production of Cereal Crops in East Africa: Role of Temperature, Precipitation, Ecological and Carbon Footprint

DOI : https://doi.org/10.36349/easjals.2023.v06i02.001
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This study was conducted to examine the impact of changes in annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, carbon footprint, ecological footprint, and area harvested on cereal crop production in East Africa. The study was conducted in a panel cointegration framework using annual time series from 1980 to 2018 for five East African countries i.e., Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. Unit root tests were performed using LLC, IPS, ADF-Fisher, and PP-Fisher tests, while panel co-integration tests were performed using Pedroni residual, Kao residual, and Johansen Fisher panel co-integration tests. Long-run coefficients were estimated using the Pooled Mean Group/Autoregressive Distributed Lag, Panel Fully-modified OLS, and Panel Dynamic OLS models. Empirical findings from the three models revealed that increases in annual mean temperature have adverse effects on cereal crop production, while increases in annual mean precipitation, carbon footprint, ecological footprint, and area harvested have positive effects on cereal crop production in East Africa. Based on these findings, it can be suggested that prioritization of climate change adaptation strategies in the region such as the development of drought and heat-resistant crop varieties, changing in planting dates, and investment in irrigation technologies to boost cereal crops productivity could play a role in minimizing the adverse effects of changes in climate factors.

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Lecturer, Dept. of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Shaheed Monsur Ali Medical College & Hospital, Uttara, Dhaka-1230, Bangladesh

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