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Oil Price Shocks and Industrial Output in Nigeria; is The Relationship Linear?

DOI : https://doi.org/10.36349/easjebm.2021.v04i11.004
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Industrialization being an engine of growth in modern economies and the primary roles energy plays in driving industrialization, stability of oil prices has become a crucial factor with spatial and temporally implications for the performance of the Nigerian industrial subsector. In this regard, this study examined the symmetric and asymmetric effects (if any) of the oil price dynamic on the Nigerian industrial subsector using ARDL and NARDL frame works based on quarterly time series data spanning 1970Q1 to 2018Q4. The result of the short-run linear ARDL model reveals that oil price stimulates marginally the performance of the building and construction industry as well as aggregated industrial output but unfortunately dampened the performance of the manufacturing subsector. Similar to the short-run result, the long-run non-linear shows that oil price shocks (increase and decrease) have mixed and variegated effects on the industrial subsector and its constituents as confirmed by the probability values of the Wald’s test. The results show that increase in the price of oil dampened aggregate industrial output and manufacturing index with marginal increase in building and construction output. Conversely, a decrease in oil price stimulates industrial manufacturing, building and construction indexes in the long-run though short-lived compare to the negative effects that propagate for a longer period. In light of the empirical findings and the asymmetric nature of oil price shocks on Nigerian industrial subsector, Nigerian government and the industrialists should formulate appropriate trade policy and develop sound industrial policy management mechanism to effectively mitigate the negative effects of oil price shocks on Nigerian industrial subsector. These include inward looking industrial policy, establishment of light industries, promotion of small and medium scales enterprise, Small and Medium Industry Equity Investment Scheme (SMIEIS), National Integrated ..............

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Dr. Afroza Begum

Lecturer, Dept. of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Shaheed Monsur Ali Medical College & Hospital, Uttara, Dhaka-1230, Bangladesh

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